Oscar Predictions- 2019

It's that time of year again! It should be an interesting show, with all of the bad publicity the Academy has generated for itself. Last year I scored a 19/24 on my guesses, but this year I suspect will be a more modest result. Without further adieu...

Best Picture:

Black Panther
BlacKKKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

This is a really tricky one. Yes, Roma’s my favourite of the field. But I’m going with it because it’s got the critical love, an absence of controversy, and a remarkably strong push by Netflix. Its also won at the Director’s Guild Awards and the BAFTA’s. Why wouldn’t it win? Green Book has remained remarkably resilient despite controversy, is Oscar bait that traditional voters gravitate to, and it has won at the Golden Globes and the Producer’s Guild. There’s also the theory that the film industry is scared of Netflix, and would therefore want to punish Roma. After that, who knows? The preferential balloting system and field of 8 films makes for potential chaos. Don’t rule out The Favourite, BlacKKKlansman, or even Black Panther! 

Best Actor:

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Malek seems a lock, but Christian Bale would be the most likely upset…

Best Actress:

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Potential upset is likely Colman for her greatness.

Best Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Not a baffling pick, but I would have preferred Adam Driver for his work in Klansman.

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Sublime stuff, but watch for Weisz sneaking from behind.

Best Animated:

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse

Lock, highly deserving.

Best Cinematography:

Lukasz Zal, Cold War
Robbie Ryan, The Favourite
Caleb Deschanel, Never Look Away
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Matthew Libatique, A Star Is Born

Sublime stuff, but watch for Cold War to upset.

Best Costume Design:

Mary Zophres, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Ruth Carter, Black Panther
Sandy Powell, The Favourite
Sandy Powell, Mary Poppins Returns
Alexandra Byrne, Mary Queen of Scots

I really struggled with this one. The Favourite is your typical choice, but will the Academy all of a sudden resemble something progressive and give it to Black Panther?

Best Director:

Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice

Cuaron feels like a lock- but will the Academy give a lifetime achievement win to Spike Lee, who’s never been nominated in his frigging career?

Best Documentary:

Free Solo

Hale Country This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

Best Documentary Short:
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at The Garden
Period. End of Sentence.

Best Editing:

Barry Alexander Brown, BlacKKKlansman
John Ottman, Bohemian Rhapsody
Yorgos Mavropsaridis, The Favourite
Patrick J. Don Vito, Green Book
Hank Corwin, Vice

Best Foreign Film:

Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters

Redundant? Would be a good way to cop out of the Best Picture category…

Best Makeup/Hairstyling:
Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer, Border
Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, and Jessica Brooks, Mary Queen of Scots
Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia Dehaney, Vice

Best Music:
Ludwig Goransson, Black Panther
Terence Blanchard, BlacKKKlansman

Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk
Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs

Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns


Best Original Song:
“All the Stars”, Black Panther
“I’ll Fight”, RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go”, Mary Poppins
“Shallow”, A Star Is Born
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings”, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Bizarre how this is the only thing it will win.

Best Production Design:
Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart, Black Panther
Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, The Favourite
Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas, First Man
John Myhre and Gordon Sim, Mary Poppins Returns
Eugenio Caballero and Bárbara Enríquez, Roma

See Best Costume above- traditional choice or progressive one for Black Panther?

Best Animated Short Film:
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

Best Short Film:

Detainment
Fauve
Margeurite
Mother
Skin


Best Sound Editing:

Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker, Black Panther
John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone, Bohemian Rhapsody
Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan, First Man
Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl, A Quiet Place
Sergio Díaz and Skip Lievsay, Roma

I call it this year’s Dunkirk.

Best Sound Mixing:
Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin, Black Panther
Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali, Bohemian Rhapsody
Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis, First Man
Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio García, Roma

Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow, A Star Is Born

Best Visual Effects:

Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick, Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones, and Chris Corbould, Christopher Robin
Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles, and J.D. Schwalm, First Man
Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler, and David Shirk, Ready Player One
Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, and Dominic Tuohy, Solo: A Star Wars Story

Another tough one. Infinity War has a strong shot- except the Academy typically ignores superduper blockbusters…

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters, A Star Is Born

Best Original Screenplay:
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice

If Green Book wins, that really strengthens its chances for Best Picture. Oy vey. Feel free to give it to Paul Schrader’s First Reformed.

Good luck everybody!